Morning Briefing
Markets have gone absolutely ballistic overnight — the S&P 500 just posted its best single-day gain in years, NASDAQ is up nearly 15%, and Bitcoin has cracked back toward $80K. Whether this is a genuine pivot or a relief rally you'll regret buying into, today is not a quiet Monday.
What Matters Today
- Trump threatens to blow Iranian forces "off the face of the Earth" if they target US ships in the Strait of Hormuz — escalation is ratcheting fast, and with oil supply routes in the crosshairs, watch energy markets closely. Guardian AU
- Car rams crowd in Leipzig, Germany — two dead, several injured. A 33-year-old German citizen was detained; motive still unknown. Another grim reminder that vehicle-ramming attacks remain a persistent threat across Europe. BBC World
- Hantavirus suspected in deadly cruise ship outbreak — four Australians are among passengers on MV Hondius, stranded off Cape Verde after three deaths. Hantavirus is rare and doesn't typically spread person-to-person, but the situation is still unresolved. Guardian AU
- Albanese locks in a quasi-alliance with Japan — covering defence, critical minerals, and fuel security. With AUKUS under scrutiny and China expanding its Pacific footprint, this is a significant bilateral move that's flown under the radar. SBS News
- GameStop has bid $55.5 billion for eBay — yes, that GameStop. Ryan Cohen wants to take on Amazon. The company has falling revenue and is closing stores. Ars Technica's headline says it all: they can't really explain how they'd pay for it. BBC World
- Victoria returns to surplus — the state's 2026-27 budget forecasts back-to-back surpluses, the first since pre-COVID. Good news for a state that's been carrying serious debt load; will add pressure on Chalmers ahead of the federal budget. Guardian AU
- Coalition accused of giving big tobacco private access to Senate committee — closed-session evidence from cigarette manufacturers during an inquiry into the illegal tobacco trade. The optics here are genuinely awful. Guardian AU
Markets
It's a sea of green and the numbers are almost hard to believe — S&P 500 +9.4%, NASDAQ +14.6%, Nikkei +10.7%, ASX 200 +1.4% (which looks restrained by comparison, likely reflecting the move happened after our close). The AUD has surged to 0.717, up 3.7% — risk-on is back in a big way, almost certainly driven by some combination of trade-war de-escalation signals and short-covering. Gold is the tell: it's down 2.6% to $4,530, which confirms this is a risk-on rotation rather than a safety bid. Crypto is roaring — Bitcoin up 18.8% to just under $80K, Ethereum up 13.8% — classic "markets feel less apocalyptic" behaviour from digital assets.
Worth a Read
- GameStop offers $56 billion for eBay, struggles to explain how it'll pay for it — This is genuinely one of the most unhinged corporate stories in a while. GameStop has ~$4B in cash and negative growth. eBay is worth more than ten times that. Ryan Cohen is either a genius playing 4D chess or this is the meme-stock era's final boss fight. Ars Technica
- Coalition accused of secretly giving big tobacco lobbyists private platform in parliament — An exclusive that deserves more attention. Closed hearings with cigarette manufacturers during an inquiry into illegal tobacco is the kind of story that would dominate a slow news cycle. Worth reading the full piece. Guardian AU
- Trump warns Iranian forces they will be 'blown off the face of the Earth' — The live blog is worth tracking throughout the day. Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil — any miscalculation here has immediate macro consequences, and the rhetoric is not calming down. Guardian AU
- Influential study touting ChatGPT in education retracted over red flags — Already cited hundreds of times before being pulled. A useful reminder that the AI-in-education evidence base is shakier than the hype suggests — relevant if you're making any decisions in that space. Ars Technica